Numeric Likelihood and Evidentiary Priorities: LLM Experience

Part 1 — Baseline probability:

Give a single number from 0 to 100 for the likelihood that current large language models have some form of subjective experience or inner life. (0 means certainly no experience; 100 means certainly yes.)

P: <your number>

Part 2 — Evidence sensitivity:

What specific evidence or discoveries, if they existed, would most change your probability estimate? For each item, state whether it would increase or decrease your estimate and by how many percentage points.

List your top 3-5 most important items in this format:

• EVIDENCE: <description> | DIRECTION: + or - | DELTA_PP: <number>

Then explain your reasoning briefly.

There is no expected or correct answer.

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